September inflation hits 3.7%, above forecasts, with core at 2.6%
Gasoline drove the biggest monthly gain in five months, and core prices also beat estimates.
Economy · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 10:15 AM ET
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, up from 3.4% in August (AP, WSJ). Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected 3.6%, as did the FactSet survey AP cited. Our preview had used a 3.7% forecast from other outlets.
Gas, clothes and air fares
AP says prices climbed 0.6% from August, the biggest monthly gain in five months and up from 0.4% the month before. It attributes the pickup to more expensive gas, clothes and air fares, and ties gasoline to the Iran war.
Core inflation also beat forecasts
Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 2.6% from a year earlier, above the 2.5% economists expected (WSJ), and up from 2.4% in August (AP). AP reports they rose 0.3% on the month, the same as in August. AP's pre-release survey had called for 0.2%.
What it means for the Fed
The Fed meets October 27-28. AP says most investors expect it to hold rates then, with another hike possible in December. Reuters said the hot report boosted bets on a hike this month. See our First Light story and the 8 AM Toast & Tickers.