Hot CPI puts an October Fed rate hike back in play
Futures-implied odds of a quarter-point hike roughly doubled after the inflation report.
The Fed · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 12:30 PM ET
Wednesday's inflation report put a rate hike at the Fed's October meeting back in play. Traders raised the odds of a quarter-point increase after the hotter-than-expected September CPI.
The odds roughly doubled
Traders put the chance of a quarter-point hike at this month's meeting at roughly a toss-up. The Wall Street Journal, citing CME Group futures, said the odds were 49% shortly before 12:15 PM ET, up from 22% before the report. AFP and Investing.com, citing the CME FedWatch tool earlier in the day, had it at 44% and 47%. The Fed meets October 27-28.
Gasoline did most of the work
Investing.com says gasoline rose 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly rise in headline CPI. Energy prices were up 20.4% from a year earlier. AFP quoted Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare saying equity futures "did an about-face" because Treasury yields spiked after the release.
Tech down, healthcare up
At 10:20 AM ET the S&P 500 was down 0.7% at 7,753.63 and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 26,952.27, with the Dow near the flat line, held up by Merck, UnitedHealth and Amgen, which gained between 2.2% and 3.2% (Investing.com). Our opening report has the first prints. Tuesday's close is in the Dusk Ledger.